OSU vs PSU: challenges, preview & prediction
COVER PHOTO: OSU receiver Carnell Tate signals a first down after a catch against Penn State in their game on Oct. 21, 2023. Picture by Sam Fahmi/Columbus Wired.
This is going to be an understatement but Ohio State has to play a darn near flawless game on Saturday if they expect to leave State College, Penn. with a win.
The fourth-ranked Buckeyes (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) will collide with the third-rated Penn State Nittany Lions (7-0, 4-0) in Beaver Stadium on Saturday afternoon in a Big Ten showdown that will be another huge step in determining who could be one of the last two standing at the end of the regular season to play for the Big Ten championship.
One deciding factor could be crowd noise.
“It’s a big challenge,” OSU head coach Ryan Day said after Wednesday’s practice. “Going on the road, (the crowd noise) is a big part of going into that environment and handling that, and that’s that challenge for those guys. They know that.”
Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin said he expects a raucous crowd of over 106,000 “Helmet Stripe” fans within Beaver Stadium a difficult place to play.
“There’s nothing better than a noon game in Happy Valley against Ohio State,” said Penn State head coach James Franklin on Wednesday evening. “This place will be rocking.”
“Helmet Stripe” is Penn State’s theme for Saturday’s game where a majority of the stadium will be wearing white, while slivers of sections on the east and west sides will wear blue, resembling their helmet.
Day said already having practiced a silent count since preseason camp back in March will hopefully benefit against the Nittany Lions.
“We try to make it as loud as we possibly can and simulate what it’s going to be like,” said Day. “Guys have reps at it but it takes discipline. We’ve had multiple guys do it but so we feel confident going into the game that we’re going to be able to handle it.”
Apparently he’s decided to block out the Oregon game and how his befuddled Buckeyes committed five false starts in raucous Autzen Stadium.
Another challenge for Ohio State could be the uncertainty of their offensive line.
Starting left tackle Josh Simmons suffered a non-contact knee injury early in the Oregon game and the fifth-year senior has been ruled out for the rest of the season. His replacement, fourth-year junior Zen Michalski, was subsequently injured near the end of last week’s game against Nebraska. They finished out the game with left guard Donovan Jackson sliding one spot to the left and sophomore Luke Montgomery taking over at left guard.
Even with Michalski, the Buckeyes only mustered 64 rushing yards for the entire game and his performance brought looks of concern as he allowed opposing defensive ends to use him as a turnstile while charging towards quarterback Will Howard on more than one occasion.
It was OSU’s first game this season that they failed to score a touchdown on the ground.
Now their patchwork line has to face defensive tackle Zane Durant and defensive end Abdul Carter, who have a combined 15.5 tackles-for-loss, including 6.5 sacks. Carter alone has 9.5 TFL’s with four sacks.
Day remained mum on Wednesday regarding the starting lineup but said it’s “trending” that Michalski will not play.
A third challenge could be the Buckeyes’ secondary.
Safety Lathan Ransom missed last weekend’s game against the Cornhuskers - his second of the year after missing Iowa, too - however, Day said he will be back on Saturday.
Even though Ransom has been riddled with injuries, he still provides a solid option in OSU’s defensive backfield. The fifth-year senior sits fourth on the team in tackles (31) - which is only two behind sophomore safety Caleb Downs - and has one of the team’s two defensive touchdowns this year: a 27-yard fumble return in the season-opener against Akron. His 4.5 TFL’s are good for third on the team.
If Ransom isn’t a go, expect senior cornerback Jordan Hancock to resume Ransom’s role he overtook last weekend and cornerbacks Jermaine Matthews and Lorenzo Styles to fill in for Hancock in the slot/nickel position.
That defensive back combo along with Downs and starting edge corners Davison Igbinosun and Denzel Burke held true freshman Nebraska QB Dylan Raiola to a season-low 152 passing yards, zero touchdowns and one interception, which came at the end of the game on the Cornhuskers’ final drive and was hauled in by Hancock.
And there-in lies a potential challenge for Penn State, who could be having a QB issue right now.
Junior Drew Allar got hurt at the end of the first half during their win at Wisconsin which brought in Beau Pribula to finish the final 30 minutes.
However, that’s where the issue might end because the redshirt sophomore seemed unfazed, looking extremely alert in the pocket while pulling off several head-turning play-fakes and completing crisp passes. He went 11-of-13 for 98 yards, one TD and didn’t throw an interception nor took a sack.
As for Allar, he’s been solid so far, completing 71 percent of his passes for 1,640 yards with 12 TD’s against four INT’s. His 174.6 passer rating is good for fourth in the conference and eighth in the nation. He was seen practicing on Wednesday and Franklin said afterwards that they’re prepping both QB’s for Saturday.
Another challenge for Ohio State could be getting pressure on whomever starts under center for Penn State because the Nittany Lions have only allowed seven sacks, which ties them for first in the conference and 10th in the country. And getting to the quarterback has been somewhat of a bane for the Buckeyes. Their 20 sacks tie them for fifth in the B1G and 29th in the country.
However, OSU has also been stout, not allowing many guys to plant Howard into the turf as their sacks-allowed numbers mirror those of the Nittany Lions. But with Simmons out and Michalski in, the Buckeyes gave up a game-high two sacks against Nebraska.
Even still, Howard had another zen-like performance, completing 81 percent for 221 yards, three TD’s and no picks against the Cornhuskers. It was the fifth-year senior’s third-straight game and fourth of the season completing at least 80 percent.
If Howard comes close to another game like that, the Nittany Lions could be faced with another substantial challenge. On the year, Howard has completed 74 percent of his passes for 1,795 yards, 17 TD’s against four INT’s and his 183.9 passer rating currently sits second in the country. He’s also run the ball 41 times for 91 yards and scampered into the end zone five times, which is tied in the conference with two other B1G QB’s for most rushing TD’s by a QB.
When it comes to toting the rock, both teams have NFL-potential two-headed monsters in the backfield.
The Nittany Lions feature juniors Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who have combined for 992 yards and seven scores. The Buckeyes have senior TreVeyon Henderson and junior Quinshon Judkins, who have teamed up for 969 yards and 10 TD’s.
But both defenses have been stingy against the run: Penn State ranks fifth in the country allowing 651 rushing yards this year while Ohio State is one spot ahead of them at 639 total rushing yards.
Could be a stalemate there.
Ultimately, the deciding factor could come down to which team is more successful through the air and that will literally lie in the hands of the receivers.
The Nittany Lions’ wideouts haven’t been overly intimidating, however. Fourth-year junior Harrison Wallace III - a former high school teammate of Quinshon Judkins - leads all PSU wide receivers with 22 catches for 350 yards and two TD’s. Fellow fourth-year junior Liam Clifford is second, snagging 14 balls for 246 and one score.
Who has been overly intimidating, though, is Tyler Warren. The 6-foot-6, 261-pound senior tight end has been a matchup nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators and a favorite target for Allar, hauling in a team-leading 47 balls for 559 yards and four TD’s.
It will be interesting to see if Sam (strong linebacker) Sonny Styles will be able to keep Warren in check.
Styles leads the entire team in tackles (43) including 2.5 for-loss and one for a sack.
But can the Lions’ secondary keep up with the Buckeyes’ prolific receivers?
That’s going to be determined.
Penn State’s 29 passes defended ranks eighth in the B1G, which is five better than OSU’s 24.
Howard will have to remain diligent and throw over the middle rather than try to complete short passes to Abdul Carter’s side because Carter has knocked down as many passes as his fellow linebackers and defensive backs.
However, Howard has a deep unit to throw to.
Emeka Egbuka currently sits eighth in the Big Ten in receiving yards (546) and tied-for-fifth in receiving TD’s.
Then there’s prolific all-everything, Jeremiah Smith.
The true freshman leads the team and is third overall in the B1G with 623 receiving yards. His eight receiving TD’s are tied-for-second overall in the conference.
Could be a stalemate there, too.
Ultimately, this game is going to come down to which team can protect the QB more in the pocket and allow their QB to complete passes over the middle. If Penn State takes a page out of Oregon’s on their win against the Buckeyes, then the Nittany Lions will win this game.
If Day lets offensive coordinator Chip Kelly and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles roam free, then the Buckeyes should win this game by two touchdowns.
This game is going to come down to whomever can throw the ball the best. Each team will run somewhat consistently not enough to win. Will Howard is the better QB between Drew Allar or Beau Pribula and Ohio State’s defense will play just as inspired if not better than they did against Nebraska.
Plus, James Franklin-coached teams are terrible in big-time games. Even worse than Ryan Day.
FINAL SCORE: OSU - 21, PSU - 20